Speaker: Sophie Hautphenne
Title: Sensitivity Analysis of Epidemic Networks
Abstract:
In this talk, we provide analytical expressions for the sensitivity of the size of an
influenza epidemic spreading among a set of cities connected by air routes in the United
States, with respect to two types of parameters: the contamination rates and the travel
rates. For that purpose, we approximate the early stages of the epidemic by a multitype
branching process, which has the advantage of being more tractable than an epidemic model
such as the SIR. We study the resulting changes in the sensitivities when plane contamination
is taken into account. Finally, we consider vaccination and analyze the sensitivity of the
total size of the epidemic with respect to the fraction of vaccinated people. The sensitivity
analysis notably informs us about the impact of small errors in the data on pertinent measures
obtained from the model, and highlights the parameters which affect the most the evolution of
the disease.